UK Suffered more Years in Recession as an EU Member
UK was the 6th largest economy when the UK joined the EU. UK’s placing has moved around the 5th/6th place over the past 4 decades, but overall not a lot changed: sometimes the UK is the 5th and other times it’s France, in GDP terms the two economies over time are equal.
This suggests the UK hasn’t suffered or performed exceptionally well economically, basically it’s done OK. That being said the UK (and France) have underperformed economically when compared to Germany, the German economy has performed exceptionally well as an EU member.
In the 45 years before the UK joined the EU the UK economy suffered 4 quarters (one year) in recession. In the 45 years since joining the EU the UK economy suffered 20 quarters (five years) in recession.
I’m not blaming the EU for UK recessions, just showing the narrative EU membership is awesome for the UK economically isn’t straightforward.
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You do say that you are not blaming the EU for recessions in the UK, but in that case what is the point of this article?
There are a myriad of factors that could explain this that have nothing to do with the EU.
Increased Globalisation
Increased Mobility
Faster Global Communications
Multinational Corporations
Without a similar economy that wasn’t on the EU to act as a control then you really have no way of showing what was the EU and what wasn’t.
Saying that the EU has been good for Germany’s economy over the same time period is frankly insane. The German economy between 1931 and 1973 had quite a few impacts that are not common occurrences. Between 1974 and now they have also had reunification which I am sure had no impact on their economy either.
I think it is safest to say “we don’t know what impact the EU has had on the UK economy”. As for leaving the EU we can certainly guess at what impact it might have short term due to tariffs and lack of trade deals. Longer term I am afraid my Crystal ball is broken.
Like I said “I’m not blaming the EU for UK recessions, just showing the narrative EU membership is awesome for the UK economically isn’t straightforward.”
I thought that was clear?
Why did you feel the need to twist my argument to match your negative narrative?
There is a pro EU narrative with little evidence offered to support it that any recent (since joining the EU) economic growth is down to being part of the EU and without EU membership the UK would be an economic basket case: the extended sickman of Europe argument, the implication being joining the EU per se fixed the UK’s economic problems.
Everything you describe as reasons for any negative economic outcomes can also be used to explain some of the UK’s economic growth as well.
Is it EU membership or:
Increased Globalisation
Increased Mobility
Faster Global Communications
Multinational Corporations
Responsible for any UK economic growth? Like you said without a control there’s no way to really know.
So why do Remain supporters argue that any UK economic success is down to EU membership?
David
I do not think I twisted what you said, and I am not up on economic arguments for or against the EU. I actually think we are agreeing here but from different starting points.
With the added context that people are claiming EU membership as being economically positive with equally little proof this makes sense.
My conclusion “we don’t know what impact the EU has had on the UK economy” certainly seems to be borne out by your latest comments.
If we don’t know (and without parallel universe are unlikely to ever know) then all we can say is about perceptions and not proof one way or another.
Thank you for taking the time to respond and providing context which makes me think that we are both in agreement. We might be able to predict short term economic changes due to immediate differences, agreement X is cancelled, impact on current trade is likely Y, but longer term we can’t tell what will happen. New agreements, new technologies, new resources, new resource shortages,…